In order to be absolutely certain about something, the odds of what they think must be 100%
I can always think of a possibility that works in the same situation. It is possible, but unlikely. Therefore, we must take this possibility into account. It makes the 100% choice, diminish to a 99.999999999% choice. And the other bizarre choice the .0000000001%.
Therefore, we cannot be absolutely certain that the 99.99999999999% choice is correct.
The point is the uncertainty. And this works in events. How is it different
We have 1 jellybean in a jar. From hearing rumors and people talking, everyones says that they think its a red jellybean. The jellybean could be red, orange, green, blue, fushia, magenta, violet, etc. However, after research, we come to the conclusion that there is a 99.9999999% chance that the jelly bean is red. We, however, do not know for sure. Obviously a .00000001% chance exists that is, lets say, not red. We are unsure what exists in the jar. Red or not red. Why? Because both scenarios are possible no matter how big or small a chance. However the red jellybean is most probable.
And since it is possible, we cannot be absolutely sure that we are on earth. Why? Lets call the earth scenario a red jellybean and the black hole scenario a green jellybean. We are unsure which jellybean exists because it is possible for both that they can exist.
Reality knows nothing of colours, only different wavelengths. But we have said that colours exist, because we see them, we’ve given a name to something which only exists in an interpretation of reality, yet in reality itself the jellybean is green and not red (the colours are wavelengths, not colours). I suppose the jellybean analogy is not a very good one, but I’ll just continue to use it anyway...
But Descartes says that there is one thing we can be certain of... that the 'I' exists, because other wise who would be there to even think about such stupid things as spaceships and fully pink cats? Does anything exist that has these perceptions you have now? Are you saying you can't even be sure that these thoughts feelings and perceptions you have now even exist? Or aren’t you sure you exist? But then who isn’t sure he doesn’t exist? Something is doing the thinking....
As Apotheosis said, if everyone can see the cat, then something very catlike is indeed there (something which makes us see fur and claws and ears, it doesn’t matter here in this argument that we don’t know what the molecules that cat is ‘made of’ look like’, because if nothing was there to cause these very similar perceptions, which are of course different for each person, then there would be no reason for them to say they were also seeing a cat.
Eureka! If only one scenario exists then why would we be uncertain about things? Just because something is possible does not mean that the certainties we hold are automatically uncertain. If you ask me, so what if there is another possibility? The fact of the matter is, what is happening is happening. No uncertainty is randomly going to arise.
threewood14 wrote:This kind of thing is faced with many conclusions in life. It is possible that we are living on Mars. However, it is more probable that we are living on Earth. The thing is, you can't tell which one is really happening! The existance of these possibilities makes our absolute certainty become a relative certainty. The possibilities makes scenarios more probable and less probable. (99.9 and .1). But we can't just shrug off a scenrio just because its less probable.
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